According to Pat Bassett, surveys have indicated that most schools are now operating within the historical “normal range” for enrollment – plus or minus 3-5%. This is the good news. More troubling is the fact that inquiries are dramatically down. Bassett explained that this is likely a pricing issue – schools have hit their price break point. In addition, although annual giving is down, the more signifi cant trend is that the dollar amount of individual contributions is rising, but the number of alumni who are giving is declining. Bassett attributed this to a lack of persuasive messaging and outreach by school communication staff. As expected, fi nancial aid awards are up signifi cantly (about 20%). In the last six recessions, the pattern was identical – financial aid expanded in the height of the recession and dropped back to normal levels when things improve.

Moving to the forecast, Bassett again emphasized that while there are troubling statistics, there are also opportunities to use data to form strategies that will make a long-term difference. He suggested checking your area’s Adversity Index for a quick analysis of its demographic strength, as our schools are directly dependent on the population’s well-being.

Trends in “happiness” indicate that since 1970, men’s absolute and relative happiness has increased, while women’s has decreased. The independent school faculty population is 70% female. To keep attracting the best and brightest female staff, we must offer the fl exibility they need. In addition, the mothers of private school children typically have more impact on the school decision than fathers, so it is the mothers to whom we should be focusing our marketing messages. Also, what services, routines and schedules might the school offer to make life easier for mothers?

As tuitions rise, incomes are declining. Consequently, high-income consumers must examine their discretionary spending. This is where an effective message about the value of an independent school education is vital. Bassett pointed out that the eight classic myths about independent schools (see the NAIS website for a downloadable fl yer at www.nais.org) are still alive and well. It is the duty of private schools to dispel those myths. Our prospect families (generally) live in high-income and high tax areas that have very well-regarded public schools. Our marketing message, in order to motivate them, must “stick” or resonate. Bassett stressed that the traditional forms of messaging from schools focus on features, which are not motivating the new tech- and communicationsavvy generation of parents.

As we face the future, we need to ask the tough questions and use available data to craft the answers. What is the trend line by family income for the last 5 years, the next 5 years? How can we increase market share? Have we hit our price break point? Can we lower our tuition to open up our market? What does our parent satisfaction survey tell us? How can we position ourselves not as high priced, but as high value?

Bassett implored us to use the data, ask the tough questions, and have a plan. Communicate with your market and make things easier for them, like through a standard application. Read and research. But above all, do not cower or shrink – face the storm and sail into it, and sunny skies will shine ahead.